Applicability of the generalized wind profile model over mountainous forests.

The analytical equation based on Monin-Obukhov (M-O) similarity theory (i.e., wind profile equation) has been adopted since 1970s for using in the prediction of wind vertical profile over flat terrains, which is mature and accurate. However, its applicability over complex terrains remains unknown. This applicability signifies the accuracy of the estimations of aerodynamic parameters for the boundary layer of non-flat terrain, such as zero-displacement height (d) and aerodynamic roughness length (z0), which will determine the accuracy of frequency correction and source area analysis in calculating carbon, water, and trace gas fluxes based on vorticity covariance method. Therefore, the validation of wind profile model in non-flat terrain is the first step to test whether the flux model needs improvement. We measured three-dimensional wind speed data by using the Ker Towers (three towers in a watershed) at Qingyuan Forest CERN in the Mountainous Region of east Liaoning Province, and compared them with data from Panjin Agricultural Station in the Liaohe Plain, to evaluate the applicability of a generalized wind profile model based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory on non-flat terrain. The results showed that the generalized wind profile model could not predict wind speeds accurately of three flux towers separately located in different sites, indicating that wind profile model was not suitable for predicting wind speeds in complex terrains. In the leaf-off and leaf-on periods, the coefficient of determination (R2) between observed and predicted wind speeds ranged from 0.12 to 0.30. Compared to measured values, the standard error of the predicted wind speeds was high up to 2 m·s-1. The predicted wind speeds were high as twice as field-measured wind speed, indicating substantial overestimation. Nevertheless, this model correctly predicted wind speeds in flat agricultural landscape in Panjin Agricultural Station. The R2 between observed wind speeds and predicted wind speed ranged from 0.90 to 0.93. The standard error between observed and predicted values was only 0.5 m·s-1. Results of the F-test showed that the root-mean-square error of the observed and predicted wind speeds in each secondary forest complex terrain was much greater than that in flat agricultural landscape. Terrain was the primary factor affecting the applicability of wind profile model, followed by seasonality (leaf or leafless canopy). The wind profile model was not applicable to the boundary-layer flows over forest canopies in complex terrains, because the d was underestimated or both the d and z0 were underestimated, resulting in inaccurate estimation of aerodynamic height.

Characteristics of spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of biological soil crusts on the Loess Plateau, China.

Biological soil crust (biocrust) is widely distributed on the Loess Plateau and plays multiple roles in regulating ecosystem stability and multifunctionality. Few reports are available on the distribution characteristics of biocrust in this region, which limits the assessment of its ecological functions. Based on 388 sampling points in different precipitation zones on the Loess Plateau from 2009 to 2020, we analyzed the coverage, composition, and influencing factors of biocrust across different durations since land abandonment, precipitation levels, topography (slope aspect and position), and utilization of abandoned slopelands (shrubland, forest, and grassland). On this base, with the assistance of machine learning and spatial modeling methods, we generated a distribution map of biocrust and its composition at a resolution of 250 m × 250 m, and analyzed the spatial distribution of biocrust on the Loess Plateau. The results showed that the average biocrust coverage in the woodlands and grasslands was 47.3%, of which cyanobacterial crust accounted for 25.5%, moss crust 19.7%, and lichen crust 2.1%. There were significant temporal and spatial variations. Temporally, the coverage of biocrust in specific regions fluctuated with the extension of the abandoned durations and coverage of cyanobacterial crust, while moss crust showed a reverse pattern. In addition, the coverage of biocrust in the wet season was slightly higher than that in the dry season within a year. Spatially, the coverage of biocrusts on the sandy lands area on the Loess Plateau was higher and dominated by cyanobacterial crusts, while the coverage was lower in the hilly and gully area. Precipitation and utilization of abandoned land were the major factors driving biocrust coverage and composition, while slope direction and position did not show obvious effect. In addition, soil organic carbon content, pH, and texture were related to the distribution of biocrust. This study uncovered the spatial and temporal variability of biocrust distribution, which might provide important data support for the research and management of biocrust in the Loess Plateau region.

Change pattern and stability of oasisization land in Mu Us Sandy Land.

Understanding land structure change and stability in the process of oasisization is particularly important for the desertification control in sandy land. Based on land use data of eight periods from 1980 to 2020, we extracted the spatial distribution information of oasis land in Mu Us Sandy Land, and analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of land transformation patterns and stability of oasis land with overlay analysis and grid analysis. The results showed that desertification in the Mu Us Sandy Land had reversed, with a significant process of oasis. The area of forest and grassland increased from 10.2% in 1980 to 73.7% in 2020, while the area of oasisization land increased from 32500 km2 in 1980 to 33900 km2 in 2020. The area of extremely severe, severe, and moderate desertification significantly decreased, while the area of non-desertification and mild desertification obviously increased. The four patterns of oasisization land transformation, including stability, fluctuation, expansion, and retreat, which accounted for 78.7%, 12.2%, 6.2%, and 2.9% of the oasisization land area in 2020, respectively. The oasisization land with low change intensity (the cumulative change intensity less than 0.12) in the Mu Us Sandy Land accounted for 82.7% of the total oasisization area, and the oasisization land in the sandy land was generally stable. Zoning management strategies should be applied according to the stability of sand belt and transformation pattern of oasisization land to achieve the goal of efficient system management and improvement, including eliminating sand hazards at desertification expansion areas with strong wind and sand activities, consolidating sand resources at oasisization areas where ecologically fragile desertification was frequent, and sustainably managing and utilizing sand resources at stable expansion of oases in forest- and grass-rich oasisization areas.

Can large-scale tree planting in China compensate for the loss of climate connectivity due to deforestation?

Extensive deforestation has been a major reason for the loss of forest connectivity, impeding species range shifts under current climate change. Over the past decades, the Chinese government launched a series of afforestation and reforestation projects to increase forest cover, yet whether the new forests can compensate for the loss of connectivity due to deforestation-and where future tree planting would be most effective-remains largely unknown. Here, we evaluate changes in climate connectivity across China's forests between 2015 and 2019. We find that China's large-scale tree planting alleviated the negative impacts of forest loss on climate connectivity, improving the extent and probability of climate connectivity by 0-0.2 °C and 0-0.03, respectively. The improvements were particularly obvious for species with short dispersal distances (i.e., 3 km and 10 km). Nevertheless, only ~55 % of the trees planted in this period could serve as stepping stones for species movement. This indicates that focusing solely on the quantitative target of forest coverage without considering the connectivity of forests may miss opportunities in tree planting to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. More attention should be paid to the spatial arrangement of tree plantations and their potential as stepping stones. We then identify priority areas for future tree planting to create effective stepping stones. Our study highlights the potential of large-scale tree planting to facilitate range shifts. Future tree-planting efforts should incorporate the need for species range shifts to achieve more biodiversity conservation benefits under climate change.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities.

Trees structure the Earth's most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1-6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth's 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world's most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.

Tree species composition, growing stock and biomass carbon dynamics of the major timber species in Hindu Kush regions of Pakistan / Composição de espécies de árvores, estoque em crescimento e dinâmica de biomassa de carbono das principais espécies madeireiras nas regiões de Indocuche no Paquistão

Using inventory data, this study evaluates the species composition, growing stock volume (GSV), and biomass carbon (BMC) of the five major timber species in the sub-tropical, and temperate/sub-alpine regions of Pakistan. It was found that the stem density varies between 50 and 221 trees ha -1, with a mean of 142 trees ha-1 (13.68 million trees for entire forest area). Among the species, Pinus wallichiana showed a high species composition (27.80%) followed by Picea smithiana (24.64%). The GSV was found in the range of 67.81 to 425.94 m3 ha-1, with a total GSV value of 20.68 million m3 for the entire region. Similarly, The BMC ranged from 27.04 to 169.86 Mg ha-1, with a mean BMC value of 86.80 Mg ha-1. The total amount of stored carbon was found at 8.69 million tons for a total of 95842 ha of commercially managed forest. Furthermore, the correlation analysis between the basal area (BA) and GSV and BMC showed that BA is the best predictor of GSV and BMC. The findings provide insights to the policy makers and forest managers regarding the sustainable commercial forest management as well as forest carbon management in the recent global carbon management for climate change mitigation.

Usando dados de inventário, este estudo avaliou a composição de espécies, volume de estoque crescente (GSV) e carbono de biomassa (BMC) das cinco principais espécies madeireiras nas regiões subtropicais e temperadas/subalpinas do Paquistão. Constatou-se que a densidade do caule variou entre 50 e 221 árvores ha-1, com média de 142 árvores ha-1 (13,68 milhões de árvores para toda a área florestal). Entre as espécies, Pinus wallichiana apresentou alta composição de espécies (27,80%), seguida de Picea smithiana (24,64%). O GSV foi encontrado na faixa de 67,81 a 425,94 m3 ha-1, com um valor total de 20,68 milhões de m3 para toda a região. Da mesma forma, o BMC variou de 27,04 a 169,86 mg ha-1, com valor médio de 86,80 mg ha-1. A quantidade total de carbono armazenado foi de 8,69 milhões de toneladas para um total de 95.842 ha de floresta manejada comercialmente. Além disso, a análise de correlação entre área basal (BA), GSV e BMC mostrou que BA é o melhor preditor de GSV e BMC. As descobertas fornecem insights para os formuladores de políticas e gestores florestais sobre o manejo florestal comercial sustentável, bem como o manejo florestal de carbono no recente gerenciamento global de carbono para a mitigação das mudanças climáticas.

Potencial dendrocronológico de tres especies de Podocarpáceas de la Cordillera de los Andes / Dendrochronological potential of three Podocarpaceae species from the Andean Cordillera

Resumen Introducción: Poco se conoce del potencial dendrocronológico de las Podocarpáceas en el trópico. Objetivo: Explorar el potencial dendrocronológico de tres especies de podocarpáceas: Retrophyllum rospigliosii, Podocarpus oleifolius y Prumnopitys harmsiana. Métodos: De plantaciones no manejadas localizadas en los Andes colombianos, se muestrearon y analizaron 88 árboles: 30 muestras de R. rospigliosii provenientes de secciones transversales, 30 y 28 muestras de P. oleifolius y P. harmsiana, respectivamente, provenientes de núcleos de madera extraídos con barreno de incrementos. Las muestras se procesaron siguiendo las técnicas dendrocronológicas estándar. Resultados: En general, las características anatómicas de los anillos de crecimiento son similares para las tres especies, con una anatomía simple de traqueidas alineadas radialmente por tratarse de coníferas. Dado que la edad conocida de la plantación coincide con el número de anillos se considera una fuerte evidencia de la frecuencia anual de su formación en R. rospigliosii y P. oleifolius, las cuales presentaron buena sincronización (cofechado) con una inter-correlación promedio de 0.55 (r-Pearson). Para P. harmsiana no fue posible concretar series de ancho de anillos de las muestras recolectadas. Las series estandarizadas de R. rospigliosii y P. oleifolius mostraron una relación con los registros instrumentales de precipitación y temperatura, indicando que estas especies pueden ser promisorias para estudios adicionales. Conclusión: La investigación dendrocronología con especies de Podocarpáceas podría realizarse exitosamente con R. rospigliosii y P. oleifolius, pero no con P. harmsiana.

Abstract Introduction: Little is known about the dendrochronological potential of Podocarpaceaes in the tropics. Objective: To explore the dendrochronological potential of three Podocarpaceae species: Retrophyllum rospigliosii, Podocarpus oleifolius, and Prumnopitys harmsiana. Methods: From a non-managed plantation in the Andean cordillera in Colombia, a total of 88 trees were analyzed: 30 samples of cross-sections of R. rospigliosii, and 30 and 28 samples of P. oleifolius and P. harmsiana, respectively, obtained with an increment borer. Samples were processed according to standard dendrochronological methods. Results: The anatomical characteristics of the growth rings of the three species are similar, with a simple conifer anatomy with radially oriented tracheids. Since the known age of the plantation coincides with the number of tree rings this is strong evidence of annual tree-ring frequency of R. rospigliosii and P. oleifolius which also showed a satisfactory cross-dating with an average inter-correlation of 0.55 (r-Pearson). For P. harmsiana, it was not possible to build a tree-ring series from the collected samples. R. rospigliosii and P. oleifolius standardized ring-width chronologies showed a relationship with the instrumental records of rainfall and temperature, indicating these species may be promising further studies. Conclusions: Dendrochronological research with Podocarpaceae species could be carried out successfully with R. rospigliosii and P. oleifolius but not with P. harmsiana.

Functional traits and performance of woody species on oil-affected soils of the Ecuadorian Amazon / Rasgos funcionales y comportamiento de especies leñosas en suelos afectados por petróleo de la Amazonía ecuatoriana

Abstract Introduction: Plant functional traits are widely used to predict community productivity. However, they are rarely used to predict the performance (in terms of growth diameter, growth height, survival, and integral response index) of woody species planted in degraded soils. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between the functional traits and the performance of 25 woody species planted in disturbed soils affected by oil extraction activities in Ecuadorian Amazon. Methods: Eighteen permanent sampling plots were established and five 6-month-old seedlings of each 25 species were randomly planted in each plot (125 individuals per plot), at a distance of 4×4 m. Eight quantitative functional traits (leaf size, specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf phosphorus concentration, leaf minimum unit, leaf dry matter content, stem specific density and leaf tensile strength) were determined for each species. Results: The woody species with high performance shows greater leaf size, specific leaf area and Stem Specific Density than those showing low performance. Leaf nitrogen concentration and stem specific density had a direct relationship with the integral response index. The leaf size, leaf phosphorus concentration, leaf dry matter content and leaf tensile strength showed a negative relationship with the integral response index. Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that the performance of woody species o disturbed soils can be predicted satisfyingly by leaf and stem functional traits, presumably because these traits capture most of environmental and neighborhood conditions.

Resumen Introducción: Los rasgos funcionales de las plantas han sido ampliamente utilizados para predecir la productividad (en términos de crecimiento en diámetro, crecimiento en altura, sobrevivencia e índice de respuesta integral) de las comunidades vegetales. Sin embargo, rara vez han sido utilizados para predecir el desempeño de las especies leñosas plantadas en suelos degradados. Objetivo: Evaluar la relación entre el desempeño y los rasgos funcionales de 25 especies leñosas plantadas en suelos afectados por actividades de extracción de petróleo en la Amazonía ecuatoriana. Métodos: Se establecieron 18 parcelas permanentes de muestreo y en cada parcela se sembraron aleatoriamente cinco plántulas de 6 meses de las 25 especies (125 individuos por parcela), a una distancia de 4×4 m. Se determinaron ocho rasgos funcionales (área foliar, área foliar específica, concentración de nitrógeno foliar, concentración de fósforo foliar, unidad mínima foliar, contenido foliar de materia seca, densidad específica del fuste y fuerza tensil foliar) de cada especie. Resultados: Las especies leñosas con alto desempeño presentaron mayor área foliar, área foliar específica y densidad específica del fuste que las especies de bajo desempeño. La concentración de nitrógeno foliar y la densidad específica del fuste mostraron una relación directa. El área foliar, la concentración de fósforo foliar, el contenido de materia seca foliar y la fuerza tensil foliar presentaron una relación inversa con el Índice de Respuesta Integral. Conclusión: Se demostró que el desempeño de las especies leñosas plantadas en suelos alterados puede predecirse satisfactoriamente por rasgos funcionales de hoja y de tallo, debido posiblemente a que los rasgos influyen en el crecimiento y supervivencia de las especies, y reflejan la mayoría de las condiciones ambientales.

Fennoscandian tree-ring anatomy shows a warmer modern than medieval climate.

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

The carbon costs of global wood harvests.

After agriculture, wood harvest is the human activity that has most reduced the storage of carbon in vegetation and soils1,2. Although felled wood releases carbon to the atmosphere in various steps, the fact that growing trees absorb carbon has led to different carbon-accounting approaches for wood use, producing widely varying estimates of carbon costs. Many approaches give the impression of low, zero or even negative greenhouse gas emissions from wood harvests because, in different ways, they offset carbon losses from new harvests with carbon sequestration from growth of broad forest areas3,4. Attributing this sequestration to new harvests is inappropriate because this other forest growth would occur regardless of new harvests and typically results from agricultural abandonment, recovery from previous harvests and climate change itself. Nevertheless some papers count gross emissions annually, which assigns no value to the capacity of newly harvested forests to regrow and approach the carbon stocks of unharvested forests. Here we present results of a new model that uses time discounting to estimate the present and future carbon costs of global wood harvests under different scenarios. We find that forest harvests between 2010 and 2050 will probably have annualized carbon costs of 3.5-4.2 Gt CO2e yr-1, which approach common estimates of annual emissions from land-use change due to agricultural expansion. Our study suggests an underappreciated option to address climate change by reducing these costs.

Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests.

Tropical forests face increasing climate risk1,2, yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text]50) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM50) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk3-5, little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text]50 and HSM50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM50 in the Amazon6,7, with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink.

Logged tropical forests have amplified and diverse ecosystem energetics.

Old-growth tropical forests are widely recognized as being immensely important for their biodiversity and high biomass1. Conversely, logged tropical forests are usually characterized as degraded ecosystems2. However, whether logging results in a degradation in ecosystem functions is less clear: shifts in the strength and resilience of key ecosystem processes in large suites of species have rarely been assessed in an ecologically integrated and quantitative framework. Here we adopt an ecosystem energetics lens to gain new insight into the impacts of tropical forest disturbance on a key integrative aspect of ecological function: food pathways and community structure of birds and mammals. We focus on a gradient spanning old-growth and logged forests and oil palm plantations in Borneo. In logged forest there is a 2.5-fold increase in total resource consumption by both birds and mammals compared to that in old-growth forests, probably driven by greater resource accessibility and vegetation palatability. Most principal energetic pathways maintain high species diversity and redundancy, implying maintained resilience. Conversion of logged forest into oil palm plantation results in the collapse of most energetic pathways. Far from being degraded ecosystems, even heavily logged forests can be vibrant and diverse ecosystems with enhanced levels of ecological function.

When and where to protect forests.

Ongoing deforestation poses a major threat to biodiversity1,2. With limited resources and imminent threats, deciding when as well as where to conserve is a fundamental question. Here we use a dynamic optimization approach to identify an optimal sequence for the conservation of plant species in 458 forested ecoregions globally over the next 50 years. The optimization approach includes species richness in each forested ecoregion, complementarity of species across ecoregions, costs of conservation that rise with cumulative protection in an ecoregion, the existing degree of protection, the rate of deforestation and the potential for reforestation in each ecoregion. The optimal conservation strategy for this formulation initially targets a small number of ecoregions where further deforestation leads to large reductions in species and where the costs of conservation are low. In later years, conservation efforts spread to more ecoregions, and invest in both expanded protection of primary forest and reforestation. The largest gains in species conservation come in Melanesia, South and Southeast Asia, the Anatolian peninsula, northern South America and Central America. The results highlight the potentially large gains in conservation that can be made with carefully targeted investments.

Sufficient conditions for rapid range expansion of a boreal conifer.

Unprecedented modern rates of warming are expected to advance boreal forest into Arctic tundra1, thereby reducing albedo2-4, altering carbon cycling4 and further changing climate1-4, yet the patterns and processes of this biome shift remain unclear5. Climate warming, required for previous boreal advances6-17, is not sufficient by itself for modern range expansion of conifers forming forest-tundra ecotones5,12-15,17-20. No high-latitude population of conifers, the dominant North American Arctic treeline taxon, has previously been documented5 advancing at rates following the last glacial maximum (LGM)6-8. Here we describe a population of white spruce (Picea glauca) advancing at post-LGM rates7 across an Arctic basin distant from established treelines and provide evidence of mechanisms sustaining the advance. The population doubles each decade, with exponential radial growth in the main stems of individual trees correlating positively with July air temperature. Lateral branches in adults and terminal leaders in large juveniles grow almost twice as fast as those at established treelines. We conclude that surpassing temperature thresholds1,6-17, together with winter winds facilitating long-distance dispersal, deeper snowpack and increased soil nutrient availability promoting recruitment and growth, provides sufficient conditions for boreal forest advance. These observations enable forecast modelling with important insights into the environmental conditions converting tundra into forest.

Warm springs alter timing but not total growth of temperate deciduous trees.

As the climate changes, warmer spring temperatures are causing earlier leaf-out1-3 and commencement of CO2 uptake1,3 in temperate deciduous forests, resulting in a tendency towards increased growing season length3 and annual CO2 uptake1,3-7. However, less is known about how spring temperatures affect tree stem growth8,9, which sequesters carbon in wood that has a long residence time in the ecosystem10,11. Here we show that warmer spring temperatures shifted stem diameter growth of deciduous trees earlier but had no consistent effect on peak growing season length, maximum growth rates, or annual growth, using dendrometer band measurements from 440 trees across two forests. The latter finding was confirmed on the centennial scale by 207 tree-ring chronologies from 108 forests across eastern North America, where annual ring width was far more sensitive to temperatures during the peak growing season than in the spring. These findings imply that any extra CO2 uptake in years with warmer spring temperatures4,5 does not significantly contribute to increased sequestration in long-lived woody stem biomass. Rather, contradicting projections from global carbon cycle models1,12, our empirical results imply that warming spring temperatures are unlikely to increase woody productivity enough to strengthen the long-term CO2 sink of temperate deciduous forests.

Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests.

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain1-9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)1. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience2, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators3-5, has changed during the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.